The Economic History of the Solar System: The Regulation of Low Earth Orbit

The early periods of space exploration were characterized by a lack of cohesion. There were some joint ventures and agreements not to weaponize low earth orbit but in most cases, each nation followed it’s own path as far as space exploration went.

A growing problem caused by congestion in orbit changed this. At the close of the twentieth century there were over two thousand satellites in orbit. Within twenty years the number had doubled. Once debris and discarded boosters were taken into account, there were over half a million objects larger than a centimeter orbiting the Earth. None of these orbits were stable but, for many of the objects, the decay could take decades if not centuries. For the people of the day, space was congested and it was only going to get more so.

In 2009, the first accidental collision between satellites occurred when Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251 collided. The space exploration community lived in fear of the Kessler Effect, the situation where debris from one collision hits another satellite generating a cascade effect until the amount of debris renders low Earth orbit unusable. In 2020, a small cascade that eliminated seven satellites over several weeks made the world take notice of this growing problem. The main space faring nations agreed that something needed to be done and the next two years were spent as the various nations jockeyed for position on who should pay. The newer space faring nations argued that costs should be apportioned according to the number of satellites in orbit. For Russia and the U.S., this represented a massive financial burden for satellites that were effectively dead. These countries used their veto to block those proposals and countered that each new launch should contribute to the clean up fund on the grounds that these were the satellites requiring a clear orbital path. In short, Russia and the U.S. argued that, if you needed a space, you should pay for it.

In 2022, a second cascade occurred taking out another five satellites. Orbital mechanics wasn’t going to wait for Earth bound politicians to come to an agreement. In a hurried session a compromise was worked out that Russia and the U.S. would contribute seed funding but a levy was to be imposed on all launches above the Kármán line with the clean up effort being launched from Russian or U.S. facilities. Once agreed, the new rules were strictly enforced as it was to the advantage of the major powers to limit those smaller countries looking to develop ballistic missile capability.

This provided the funds for the clean up and an available source of funds created the incentives required for commercial operators to develop the technology to deal with the mess in orbit. For all the visions of landing on Mars or mining asteroids, the first commercial ventures in space itself was to be the messy business of dealing with the garbage circling the Earth.

This wasn’t to be the end of regulation but it provided the foundation that was used from that point onward.


This post is part of The Economic History of the Solar System. The background for this series can be found here.

The Economic History of the Solar System: The First Explorer Era

This was the stage that as which humanity made the first and most tentative steps into space. In this period, the most valuable thing to be gained from the exploration of space was knowledge and the side effects of the innovation required to get there. Almost nothing physical was collected from space itself apart from a volume of moon rocks. The only real benefit was the acquisition of knowledge. Governments drove this first period for two reasons. Firstly, there was no economic incentive and the exploration was expensive ans only governments had access to the resources required. The second reason was that the first stages of space exploration was an offshoot of the industry to develop more and more powerful ballistic missiles – a purely government agenda.  This era was characterized by low orbit manned missions, unmanned probes, high levels of national pride and a lot of mistakes.  The first targets were based in national pride. First man in space. First person to orbit the earth. First man on the moon. First space station. First man (or woman) on an asteroid then on Mars. Planet flybys were also popular targets though these had a beneficial side effect. The more people learned about other bodies in the solar system, the more questions that were raised with follow on missions generally aimed to answer these questions. This created a succession of unmanned probes to Mars and Jupiter in particular that revealed a lot about the conditions on these two planets.

Although the economic incentive wasn’t yet there, this period is crucial to subsequent eras. The knowledge gained during this period defined the targets for subsequent eras. For example the early period focused heavily of finding volatiles such as water on other bodies such as the surface of the moon.

The main reason this period lasted as long as it did is because of the massive costs of getting things into orbit. It cost of around $5,000 to $10,000 per kilogram to get an item into Earth orbit – more to get the item to another part of the solar system. The reasons for this high cost are getting the item out of Earth’s atmosphere and accelerated to Earth’s orbital velocity of 8km per second. This high cost to Earth orbit will be a significant driving force that shaped the economics of the Solar System ever since. Humanity could never fully overcome this problem despite such fanciful ideas such as space elevators, space tethers and anti-gravity drives.

Escaping Earth has always meant a brute force heft into orbit around our planet.

The next post will look at the first economic incentives, the First Commercial Ventures Era.


This post is part of The Economic History of the Solar System. The background for this series can be found here.

The Economic History of the Solar System 

It’s my intention to write some science fiction.  Near future, hard science fiction based on tech that we can believe in today. To do this, I create some serious constraints for myself.  No faster then light travel. No artificial gravity. No aliens or, even, alien artifacts. No laser blasters and no spaceships zooming around like WW2 era airplanes.

But, to make these novels workable, I need conflict and stakes.

So I will look to that most ancient and human source of conflict and stakes – economics.  This means I need an economic history for my setting. NASA and its probes will unveil the Solar system as it is and create the physical setting. I need an economic history to complete the human setting.

These posts are my attempt to create a believable economic history to the settlement of our Solar System.

Update: I have decided that the posts will be written in past tense. It just makes it easier. I’m speculating but just down a single line of thought and it’s a lot easier to write in past tense.

The (growing) outline is as follows:

The Early Period:

Links

For those interested, here’s some of the links that I have used as inspiration for this fictitious history.

Economic History of the Solar System: Links

Book Review: Unwind

unwindBy Neal Shusterman

This is another book I picked up in my random ‘smash and grab’ from the teen section in the local library. Of the books that I borrowed, this is perhaps the best and most haunting.

The premise is that in the future, there’s a war between the different sides of the abortion debate that concluded in a compromise that pregnancy could not be terminated but that children between 13 and 18 could be harvested for organs as long as 99.4% of their body was used in transplants. The theory here was they would still be alive, just divided. It’s a horrible thought but knowing what atrocities have been justified in the past, it’s just the science that makes it far fetched.

The great thing about this book is that it provides a reasonable excuse for the society to justify the disposal on individuals that fall within the age bracket. Neal does a great job of the setting and establishing the horror for those selected. The story is centred around three children who have been sentenced to this fate.

What works is the variety of reasons that are given for parents and guardians committing their children to being unwound. The main character Connor is handed over for unwinding because his parents could not control his behavior. The book starts with him finding the order and escaping. Risa is the main female character and she lives in an orohange being raised by the state. They evaluate her academic progress and decide to unwind her in order to respond to budget cuts. The final main character, Levi, is being sent as a tithe. He has religious parents and as the 10th child, he is their 10% tithe (of course they never stop to consider that Levi himself is donating 100%).

Through the book there are other children and Neal finds many, many reasons for his society to find children expendable. One is the result of a messy divorce where the parents could not agree on custody. Another child is an orphan sent to live with an aunt after her mother dies and the aunt decides unwinding is the best option so that she can get her hands on that child’s inheritance. The list goes on. It’s sobering to realize that there are without doubt, people in the world who would take the easy way out with their children if it was available to them. Perhaps this is the reason I liked the book so much, the credible story (“You’ll still be alive, just in a divided state” and “change is hard”) allows for denial that everyone buys into. As humans we have lived with denial in the past, have a look at the justifications for slavery during the worst of the transatlantic trade.

If you are looking for something that changes a single aspect of our society and created a picture about how we would behave, then this is the book for you.

As a book is it part one of a four part series but the book stands alone. It’s an excellent read and literally one that I couldn’t put down.

Colonizing the Solar System: The Basics – Water in Orbit

This is the first of my thought experiments about colonizing the Solar System.  I’m of the view that we won’t wait until we have space elevators or anti-gravity drives. When selecting start colonizing, getting into orbit will be a lottery of effort. Personally, I believe that when humanity gets serious about the Solar System, well still be struggling to get into orbit. I suspect that an early goal for long term settlement will be a consistent and ready supply of water in orbit.

If there’s water on the moon or on an asteroid close to Earth. That will be the primary objective. To establish a settlement and a mechanism for reliably and routinely getting the water for there into Earth orbit. It could be stored above geostationary orbit (where there is less junk) and decelerated into a lower orbit as needed.

The first permanently inhabited colony in space may be on a chunk of ice. Once the cost of moving heavy propellant into orbit is removed then travel time around the Solar System can be reduced and the amount of useful equipment brought into space increased.

In my timeline, this is what has happened. The first colonies were set up to guarantee a ready supply of fuel.

Hands off the Steering Wheel

The other day I needed to drive across town to pick up a parcel. The depot was in a part of town that I don’t normally visit so, as usual, I secured the phone in the hands-free cradle and let Google tell me what to do. I had two choices,via the motorway or via the back streets. I chose the backstreets simply because the first set of lights made it a minute quicker.

As I drove I reflected that Google must have chosen those routes knowing the traffic profile and time of day. Otherwise how could it have got the timing of arrival so accurate.

As I drove, the streets were empty and strange. These were streets that I had never seen before and would never have visited any other way. What would I have done without Google? I would have used a map. Taken the motorway and taken the closest exit ramp then used the map from there rather than the complex route Google chose. I’d have been another car on the motorway clogging it up. As I looked around, I saw all this unused infrastructure – empty streets when the motorway was probably loaded with cars.

Auckland has a traffic problem. The motorways clog up too quickly and here I was on empty streets. Perhaps the answer is Google, Google maps and driver-less cars. Take the choice away from people. They put in a destination and Google gets them there – no choices, Google decides the route. That way all this infrastructure gets used more efficiently. Don’t build more roads, just better use the ones that we have.

The fine of the future “driver had his hands on the steering wheel.

This is great inspiration for a short story, one that I would like to call, “Just Drive.” Perhaps one day I will write it. Rebellion against authority by doing something we currently take for granted. But which is right, using infrastructure effectively or the freedom of choice to sit, crawling, on the motorway?