This is the the third post on the Brexit. I gave a two visions of the future in my previous posts. Here, I give a third.
My third prediction is that the UK never leaves the EU. You see the issue is that someone has to invoke Article 50 to initiate the leaving process and it may well be that there is never anyone who is both (a) in the position to do this and (b) willing to do it.
It won’t be invoked before October, David Cameron’s taken care of that. With 75% of MPs keen for the UK to stay in the EU, there’s a good possibility that no one willing to take the step gets put in the position to do it.
In the news it seems that this is exactly what may be happening with Conservatives working to keep Boris (the key leaver) from gaining the Prime Ministership. Also, it seems there’s a lot of anger and regret and calls for a second referendum.
If no one invokes Article 50, then it comes down to a general election and once that happens, and especially if EU membership is a major part of the campaign, then is the mandate of the Brexit vote could be invalidated.
I would hope this is the path that gets followed and that representative democracy wins out of populist ‘winner takes all’ referenda driven direct democracy. Representative democracy does seem to have the edge in that it’s a bit harder to feed professional politicians a few loose facts and buzzwords to swing their vote.
Of all things, I never expected to cheerleader for the institution of professional politicians. I must admit that it’s taken a long time and a very serious event to understand the benefit they provide but I appreciate what they bring.
It doesn’t mean I trust professional politicians. I just trust them more than a raw mob of votes sucked in by a few buzzwords and unsubstantiated facts via the media.